Countdown in Eritrea

 By Beleho Yeshak

Self-destructive militarism at a speedy rate

Looking back to 1973 when the Ethiopian Revolution broke out, I remember how the Eritrean educated youth responded to this event. The majority of the youth and educated adults opted to fight for separation. After 33 years since 1974, and 14 years since the Eritrean independence the alleged fight for liberation has ended in a catastrophe. Eritrea has become for its people the hell on earth. Eritrea has been transformed into a military barrack full of weapons with trained soldiers initially designed to control the East African region. I remember the assertion that the weapons the EPLF has amassed were taken from the Ethiopian army, but the weapons came from other sources. The Ethiopian army was rightfully defending the national unity. In today’s view the EPLF was a terrorist organization and a creation of the cold war to fight socialism. I wish to bring into the memory of Eritreans their delight over killed and ambushed Ethiopian soldiers doing their duty. When we Ethiopians called for unity, we meant it. We invited you to fight alongside us an archaic feudal system.. You left us, because you gave priority to an aim which was repeated again and again: Independence and separation. You got your independence and by now you should be able to understand the blunder you have done 33 years back! If you still believe that it was correct, I am obliged to leave it for history to judge.

What is my concern?

The reason I am writing this paper is to express my view on what will happen in Eritrea in the near future and what could be a solution to the situation, of-course from an Ethiopian whom you may discredit like 33 years ago when he argued that separation might be the road to hell. Nevertheless I consider the people living on the territory of Eritrea is a concern not only to me but to all who see a looming civil war in Eritrea.

Eritrea, another Somalia or even worse?

I am not exaggerating when I compare the future of Eritrea with Somalia. The amount of weapons accumulated in Eritrea to dominate the area and the several rounds of military trainings since Eritrea’s independence is a cocktail which can erupt and can lead to a civil war. I predict that it will be worse in intensity than in any country striving for a regime change. There are no rules to be followed derived from a constitution which never was implemented. With a ruthless and lunatic dictator at the top, rationality and humanity cannot prevail. If Issaias can be considered a warlord, we are already observing mini warlords mushrooming in Eritrea, waiting for battle among themselves to gain supremacy. These regional warlords, who are generals appointed by Issaias, using the pretext of national defence have already set up their forces and are only glued with one another by Issaias who still seems to have their loyalty. But there are signs of disintegration which are being speeded up by corruption and economic crisis. It is a matter of time until the situation gets out of control. The lack of access to information will help the protagonists to manipulate the people in order to get their support and thus create confusion. Bit by bit the civilian authorities in Eritrea have been substituted by generals in all regions who are now practically running the country. Administrative injustice due to incompetence and arbitrariness has already created alignments around figures which will eventually deepen the antagonism between factions.

Is it too late for Eritrea?

It is never too late, but repeating the same mistakes again and again  leads to a tragedy. Most Eritreans in matters of politics tend to always take the step in the wrong direction. It took decades for Eritreans to find out that Issaias and his cohorts are simple warlords and power mongers. There is less freedom and more fear in Eritrea than during the reign of Haile Selassie. Graduates from Ethiopian High Schools and Higher Institutions joined the EPLF to fight Ethiopia. They saw in Issaias their African Che Guevara whom they worshipped until they woke up and found themselves being enslaved by a regime now considered as the worst in our world of today. The latest propaganda Issaias has been successfully using was: “no war no peace” as a  situation to have free hand exerting his power. Though Issaias can be blamed to have used hatred against Ethiopia as a major tool to manipulate and make his subjects submissive to his leadership, those manipulated must bear equal blame. The simple fact that Eritreas’s fate and destiny is connected with Ethiopia was cancelled out. History was distorted by alleging that Eritrea has never been part of Ethiopia. There is no mention in Eritrean history books of the many brave Eritreans who fought against Italian fascism alongside Ethiopian patriots. In fact, one could find arguments that Italian colonialism actually had a deeper influence constituting their Eritrean identity.  

Here are some examples of Eritrean arrogance vis a vis Ethiopia::

 “One can of insect spray for a thousand flies, and one cat for fifty mice”.

 “We shall breakfast in Sheraro, have lunch in Endaselasse Shire, and dinner in Mekele.”

Haile Menkerios at the UN: “We shall put them where they are, it won’t be difficult to bring them down”. …..”It will not take us more than two weeks to march into Addis. The problem we are facing at the moment is not how to defeat Ethiopia, but who to hand the reigns of government to”.

Militarism for territorial claims is backfiring

I had hoped that Eritrean militarism would end after the devastating defeat by the Ethiopian army, a defeat which has unmasked the shallow pride of Eritreans to have defeated the biggest army on the African continent. Still the leader who has engineered the death of thousands of Eritrean youth is there mobilizing for a final round.. Eritreans should be aware that the zeal for killing Ethiopians will ignite a process of self destruction. Why do I mention this? To create space for rationality in the minds of Eritreans. You have been acclaiming Issaias  when he provoked Ethiopia by occupying Badme, you have been compelled to send money for his military armament. Is it now that you consider him as a tyrant when his actions are directed against his own people.

Impoverished Eritrea cannot afford political instability

The worsening situation in Eritrea is also an Ethiopian concern. Already thousands are fleeing into neighbouring countries to leave behind a system which has become intolerable. Daily refugees are arriving in Ethiopia from Eritrea. If chaos breaks out in Eritrea, Ethiopia is the most affected country by having to shelter Eritrean refugees in a large scale. It is in the interest of Ethiopia to see a stable Eritrea in which a regime change can also occur. Eritreans must, by now, realize that Issaias, no matter what the outcome be can start another war against Ethiopia. Issaias’s generals, with the passage of time, are accustomed to a sweet corrupt life and not ready to follow a suicidal  decision. It is an internal  stalemate fuelled by the controversies among the generals running to for possessions which even Issaias cannot control. The end of Eritrean militarism will end in a bloodshed within Eritrea unless Eritreans themselves develop skills of resolving the looming uncontrollable conflict.  Bitterness will not help in resolving the conflict.

Ill-feed Eritrean identity needs reorientation

What will help is a complete reorientation of Eritreans in defining their identity and future as well. The core problem of the struggle in Eritrea lies in its territorial definition and in its lack of inspiration for all residing outside that territory. Liberation understood as related to a territory defined by a distorted history remains crippled. While Angolans, Namibians and Cubans fought together to liberate the Southern part of Africa from colonial domination, EPLF was fighting a proxy war against movements fighting feudalism. This is why the EPLF never had any support from the ANC (African National Congress) who made out in the EPLF an orientation of narrow nationalism void of inspirations for others. The present crisis in Eritrea was a predictable outcome of a derailed and ideologically ill-feed concept which started decades ago. Still to this day issues debated among Eritreans are not ideological, philosophical or historical, rather about territory, be it Assab or Badme. It seems that is as if Eritrean nationalism begins and ends in protecting a territory from which pride is derived, and more militarism is exercised to defend the territory whatever the cost might be. Badme is the cause used by Issaias not to implement the constitution, his dictatorial system was established bit by bit to raise the military. capacity  The first measure Eritreans should take is to release their capacity of rational thinking which has been hijacked by Issaias. This is the key to come out of the crisis. The first and most important step to be taken is to see Ethiopians as brothers and sisters. Eritreans’ allies should not be governments but peoples striving to come out of poverty. Having a functioning port serves the interest of all, not only of one country. The mobility of people who have lived together for centuries has been sacrificed for the sake of separation. A common currency which has proved to be stable was given up for the sake of a new currency, the Nakfa. The separation of the common Coptic Christian church was engineered politically.  Why all this?

Regain the support of the international community !

All facts in the past which created the present tragedy should be mentioned if Eritrea is to avoid bloodshed caused by internal conflicts.  The role of Ethiopia must be determined by the Eritreans themselves in how far it can help overcome the crisis. The shameful intervention of Issaias in Somalia and in internal affairs of Ethiopia are issues directly related with the present crisis so that debating these issues at length would only divert attention from the struggle of the Eritreans changing their regime without bloodshed. It is wise postponing these issues as there might be no interest among the international community setting priority on territorial claims. Rationality means in this context giving no chance to Issaias to acquire legitimation  for another war. Eritreans should in every corner of this globe sit down together with Ethiopians and debate not territory but issues of relevance for both countries to secure democratic developments in the region. This must also include Somalia which, more than Eritrea, needs solidarity to retain its nationhood. Globalization issues should be in the focus rather than regional interests of foreign powers which have contributed to the alienation of peoples belonging together. One thing Eritreans must understand is that they should come up with a more base-oriented programme for the region to secure the solidarity of peoples and should once and for all abandon relying on military strength and an arrogant attitude in which dreams are dreamt for the sole development of Eritrea. The present crisis in Eritrea needs a big portion of rational thinking and its transformation into deeds. Unless there is a radical change in many regards and unless Eritreans open their minds and hearts and honestly begin participating in regional and pan-African efforts to cope with globalization and climate change, Eritrean political issues remains being jail uprising and episodes for which only Eritreans are interested. Eritreans have to learn to share their sufferings without having the feeling compromising their national identity. Issaias has in a short period of time alienated neighbouring countries by using force to acquire land. Issaias’ latest diplomatic misconduct in organizing Somali opposition forces for fight against the transitional government of Somalia which is recognized by the UN and the international community is hopefully his last move.

Memorandum

1. Eritreans, don’t destroy your country. Stop the impending civil war.
2. The rise of Issaias is the result of blind obedience of large parts of the Eritrean Community in Eritrea and in the Diaspora.
3. Ethiopia is not an enemy of Eritrea, it is an ally in the struggle for better conditions of life of all ethnic /  religious / regional communities and the development of civil society. Win the hearts and minds of Ethiopians!
4. The future of Eritrea is interrelated with the future of the neighbouring states, but Eritrea should refrain interfering in internal matters of any of the states in the Horn of Africa.
5. Many contemporary issues of global dimension (climate change, water, poverty etc..) can only be tackled in common over regional efforts. Local narrow thinking impedes the chances of sustainable solutions